Are Smartphones Dying Out?

Research shows that the smartphone could die out within the next five years…
It’s been less than a decade since Steve Jobs unveiled the very first iPhone, kick-starting a new generation of technology and gadgetry. Indeed, since the introduction of the iPhone in 2007, smartphones and mobile technology have rapidly changed our lives and taken us a to a new era of connectivity, communication and networking. This rate of change is only increasing as smartphone proliferation ramps up speed in emerging markets.
However, just as quickly as smartphones entered and took over our lives, it seems that there are already signs of their decline. It’s hard to imagine this as so many facets of daily life are now dependent on these personal devices, but there is some strong evidence to back this up.
While smartphone sales did in fact reach their peak in the last quarter of 2015, one of the leading markets for smartphones – Europe – started seeing a decline in sales.  According to a report by GfK, which was based on consumer “point of sale” data, both the French and UK markets saw a decline of growth percentage when it came to smartphone units. Though emerging markets still saw strong growth, it seems likely they will replicate the trend in Europe once enough people in those markets have access to smartphones.  
So why the decline in growth? It could signal a change in consumers and their attitudes, which are increasingly viewing the smartphone as a hindrance to authentic experiences. It’s not that they don’t find a smartphone’s capabilities useful, but rather that they want the utility that a smartphone provided in another, less invasive format. Proof of this shift comes from a report by Ericsson’s ConsumerLab which surveyed 100,000 customers in 40 countries, and found that half the respondents predicted mobile tech would be a thing of the past by 2021.
Referencing the release of the report, Rebecka Cedering Ångström of Ericsson ConsumerLab said: “A smartphone in the hand, it’s really not that practical. For example, not when one is driving a car or cooking. And there are many situations where display screens are not so good. Therefore, one in two think that smartphones will belong to the past within five years.”
So if the smartphone is on the way out, a big question remains: What will replace it? The same Ericsson report predicted that artificial intelligence is rising in prominence, with consumers increasingly eager to blur the distinction between technology and their daily lives. In short, consumers are eager for more ways to facilitate an “interaction with objects without the need for a smartphone screen”. So, instead of looking up recipes on one’s phone and having a device in the kitchen with them, users are keen to have search technology built into their kitchens themselves, creating a more seamless experience. One day, manually looking things up on our smartphone or gadgets will feel as cumbersome as sitting down at a desktop computer just once a day to check our email via a dial-up connection.
In addition, wearables have been seen as eclipsing smartphones and handheld gadgets for some time. They further the trend of fusing technology with our personhood, and are seen as more practical and immersive, and are simultaneously becoming easier to use.  
Though we still likely have a few more years of peak smartphone usage, there is no question that innovation and invention will phase them out eventually. With the impressive rate at which consumer tastes and technological capabilities change, the only real question is just when that will happen. It may seem far-fetched, but so too did smartphones just a decade ago.
Could you see yourself parting ways with your smartphone in as little as five years? Let us know on Twitter @VPSNET.